With math.TurboChris wrote:
How do you arrive at this conclusion?
Sources vary (index mundi vs. dept. of interior data), but roughly:
2009 US oil consumption: 18.7 million bbl/day (6.8 billion bbl/yr).
Estimates of ANWR recoverable reserves at 95% probability of success = 5.7 billion bbl. That's <1 year supply.
From the DOE: low and high annual production numbers are 250 - 800 million bbl. That's between 3.5% and 11% of total annual consumption. Of course, given the cap on total recoverable volume, if you're producing at the high end of the scale, you'll run out in 10 years. My statement of "it's a few percent" is spot on: it's a few percent for 30 years, or 10% for a 10 years. And that's after a 7-10 year lead time to ramp up production.
Even if the total volume is not insignificant, when you factor in the environmental risks of offshore drilling in difficult waters (see Deepwater Horizon), it is only right to ask cost/benefit questions. As far as the geopolitical aspects, we import between 9 and 12 million bbl/day (depending on sources, 2009 data). Of that, about 20% comes from the Middle East, mostly Saudi Arabia. The vast majority of our imports come from Canada and Mexico. Reducing oil consumption is a good political move long-term, but at the very best, drilling in US waters won't even replace half of our Mid-East imports for a decade.
In case I didn't make my point clear, the volume of incremental accessible domestic oil is insignificant relative to the risks of extraction.
-tammer
). I mean, abortion as a means of birth control......sorry, wrong subject.
